Sep 3

Sep 3 Antifragile

During his career at a New York hedge fund in the late 2000s, the legendary financial analyst Nassim Taleb was struck by a stark realisation.

At the time, there was a strong call by the media for the markets to be more ‘resilient’ (recover quickly from stress) or more ‘robust’ (resistant to stress).

Taleb was not satisfied with these words. He realised there was no suitable English term for growing stronger in the face of stress.

So, he invented one: Antifragile.

In essence, Taleb wanted a word to describe an ability to thrive as a result of shocks, volatility, mistakes, attacks or failures.

He noticed that markets were fragile.

Many people, as a result of fragile markets, were also fragile. So were the companies that were led by those people.

Taleb wanted us to learn from stress rather than capitulate to it.

He wanted to explore the concept of markets, people and companies growing stronger after every random, unexpected blow that the universe meted out to them (including Black Swan events).

There are tons of examples of antifragility in nature. Bacteria is a good one. Antibiotics have been a medical miracle since Alexander Fleming first recognised the utility of those messy moulds growing in his lab plates.

However, some of those nasty little microbial bastards are pretty damn hardcore. The more we hurl antibiotics at infections, the more rogue strains are resisting, adapting and thriving.

Health experts have been warning us for decades about the increased danger of adaptive bacteria. The antifragility of bacteria means that we’re at risk of superbugs in the not-too-distant future.

It’s kinda like that Omnidroid machine in the first Incredibles movie.

The one whose ass Mr. Incredible kicked in their first fight. Remember that?

Then, when he returns for round two, the Omnidroid has applied all the lessons from the fight to easily beat Mr. Incredible.

It’s quite literally a ‘learning machine’.

Entrepreneurs know this concept well. The Lean Startup Method teaches us that failure is a learning experience.

We launch our businesses. We gather feedback. We iterate and improve.

This is easy in principle, but - ohh lawdy - it’s difficult to put into practice.

One key to this is in our emotional responses. In theory it’s easy to say, ‘This too shall pass’, and other such aphorisms. In reality, it is a lot tougher when life just happens.

For example, when load-shedding decimates our ability to store food adequately.

When a single phone call from our one paying client destroys our cash flow for the year.

When a crucial sub-contractor gets sick for two weeks and leaves us at risk of losing our most important project.

Or, how about when someone we love gets really sick?

Or, if our car breaks down and we don’t have the money to fix it?

Or, if our partner threatens to leave us because we’re working too hard to make time for a relationship?

This is the reality of entrepreneurial reality.

So, how do we combat the abject despair of crafting a brilliant plan and then getting punched in the face?

In the last quarter of 2024, Heavy Chef will explore this theme of antifragility in upcoming entrepreneur events.

We’ll be unpacking the core challenges faced by entrepreneurs. We’ll then look at the potential frameworks and solutions required to tackle them.

Want to get involved?

S’free to join.